๐ Global & Macro: CME FedWatch shows a 79.5% probability the Fed holds rates in October, but by December the odds of a hold drop to 12.4%, with a 70.3% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike. Market pricing signals near-term policy stability but rising year-end tightening expectations.
๐ฆ RWA & Institutional: TD Cowen analysts warn the CFTC’s crypto regulatory framework may not be finalized before 2028, citing procedural and political hurdles. This leaves the U.S. crypto market without clear federal oversight for years.
โก Crypto & Markets: Ethereum’s price fell below $2,500, reflecting ongoing volatility in the cryptocurrency market.
๐ก Key Takeaway: Fed rate expectations diverge between short and long term, while regulatory uncertainty persists and ETH weakness underscores market fragility.